The weekly market update

Inflation is back! Well, I guess it never really went away, but it did dominate the headlines this week. We got both the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index and they both revealed what every…

It was a pretty quiet week! As I mentioned last week, there was no real economic reports that dropped this week, so the market turned to the exciting world of bond auctions and reviewing the minutes from…

What a week! This week had everything going against mortgage rates. They started at a one year high and the 10 yr Treasury hit levels not seen since COVID. The market was all but guaranteeing another Fed…

Rates took an absolute beating this week. The war in Iran and elevated oil prices still stoke fears of inflation, and treasury yields peaked to the highest levels in almost 20 years. There was some…

It was Fed week! Instead of focusing on the events leading up to the .25% rate hike they initiated, I am going to try to peek a little behind the curtain to try and provide some optimism because the News…

This week had everything going for it. Last week's conflicting employment reports reflected a labor market that may be showing some weaknesses or at least is not as robust as previously thought. All we…

It was Jobs week! The week opened with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report, followed by ADP's report and culminating with todays BLS jobs report. Starting at the beginning of the week, the…

Fed Chair Warsh spoke at the economic summit in Jackson Hole today and it was more or less a nothingburger, but that was by design. He doubled down on his commitment to eliminating forward guidance by the…

Indicators are leaning our way! We have had two months of lower inflation in the CPI reports. The labor reports are showing a weaker job market than expected. The stage is set for the Fed to ease interest…

It was inflation week, and after last week's lackluster jobs reports mortgage rates turned the corner for the better when inflation came in right near where it was expected. Both the consumer reports (the…

The skies are finally blue again and its looking to be a great, smoke-free weekend! Here is this week's market update. Speaking of the smoke clearing, it was jobs week this week and today's BLS report…

It was Fed Week this week and rates were left untouched. There were some fireworks behind closed doors, as 3 member dissented as they wanted increase rates. One of the dissenters, Beth Hammack released a…

Rates took a beating this week as the escalation of the war in Iran pushed oil prices over $100/barrel. We have all come to know and love the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, but now we have another…

It was inflation week and both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Inde came in tamer than expected. This would usually be good news and huge for mortgage rates, but since these readings came from…

Cease the ceasefire! The ceasefire in Iran fell apart this week and the market at large suffered as a result. Yields increased as oil climbed back over $70/barrel. Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner…

It was Jobs week and multiple reports told a tale of a weakening jobs market, punctuated today with the BLS report for June which showed 57K new payrolls vs the 110K expected. With the BLS report the…

This was the most encouraging week for rates since the Iran War began. Oil prices collapsed, the Strait of Hormuz looks like it will be open for business, and the Fed's favorite inflation gauge may have…

It was a new Fed week! The FOMC met this week and left rates unchanged, but that was about the only thing that stayed the same. Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held his first press conference and two…

Ahhh, Summer is finally here in Portland! I hope you had a good end to the school year and get a chance to enjoy the sun this weekend. Here is this week's market update: It was inflation week! And to the…

Remember last week when I said "With a ceasefire on the horizon and some Jobs reports that are likely going to show softening numbers, we could see this little rate rally continue."? Yeah, neither of…

Rates had a good week due to optimism coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. The week "Will they? Won't they?" of the resolution could have caused a lot of turmoil, but the markets seem to be content with…

Oil ruled the week… yet again. With WTI spiking over $100/barrel and currently hovering around $95/barrel, gas prices continue to be elevated which is driving up costs across the board. With inflation…

It was inflation week with the CPI and PPI reports dropping like a ton of bricks this week. Both reports came in higher than what was expected, like WAY higher. But the bond market kind of shrugged these…

Here is this week's update, sorry for the delay I just had a hard time getting this put together!! I hope you are having a great week! Here is this week's market update The Iran War dominated the market…

It was Fed Week and while they didn't change the rates, there was plenty of drama. In his post meeting remarks, Fed Chair Powell announced that it would be his last meeting… as the Chairman. Powell…

Rates spent the week marching upwards as the quagmire in Iran continued. With no real end in sight and what appears to be an escalation in naval activity, oil prices continued upwards which pulled…

News in Hormuz- Rates are rallying this morning as Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial vessels as Isreal and Lebanon start their 10 day ceasfire. Oil prices have dropped by about 10%…

CEASE FIRE! CEASE FIRE!!! Or don't, I guess. The big news this week was Tuesday's 5PM PST deadline for Iran to come to the bargaining table or face Trump's promised annihilation. Ultimately, initial terms…

Rates spend the week working on a recovery! Two big factors at the beginning of the week helped rates try and stage a rally: • Fed Chair Powell spoke in an interview on Monday and said he though the Fed…

Oil and the Iran War are still running the show. The will they/won't they cease fire talks earlier in the week showed promise for interest rates, but as we approached Trumps (initial) deadline of Friday…

Rates continue to take a beating this week. There was a higher than anticipated Inflation report on Wednesday morning. Then the Fed meeting that day where they held rates the same (as was expected), but…

EVERYTHING is being dominated by oil prices right now. We had a couple inflation reports, GDP revised downwards and more, but all these reports were based on a world that wasn't at war with one of the…

Remember a couple weeks back when I mentioned there was concern about a war with Iran? I believe I said something along the lines of "in short-term conflicts there is a flight to safety where foreign…

Rates are lower this morning on news of a… higher than expected inflation report? Yes, that appears to be the case but is counter to pretty much everything we have seen, so what exactly is going on? The…

Wow- it was a busy Friday! PCE, GDP and Tariffs all lead the day today. Going in order, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) report for December dropped today and is the Fed's preferred measure of…

Happy Valentine's Day Weekend! Is that a thing? Anyway, I hope you have had a great week and here is this week's market update: We have a Rally! Rates improved pretty steadily this week despite the BLS'…

It was supposed to be jobs week, but the short-lived government shutdown gave the BLS pause in releasing their report. While we are missing the "big" report this week, we did get data from ADP, Revelio,…

It was Fed Week! Which usually has the potential to sway the market one way or another, either by the Fed changing their rate or by comments made by Chairman Powell after the meeting. This time there was……

While everyone focused on Greenland, the Yen-Carry Trade did real damage on Tuesday. The beginning of the week was BRUTAL to the market and rates. While the public was wringing their hands over what…

I'm Back! I hope you had a great Holiday and Happy New Year. Here is this week's market update. It was jobs week this week! JOLTS and ADP and BLS all dropped and for the most part painted a picture of a…

It was inflation week! The Consumer Price Index for November dropped yesterday, and this is the first CPI report issued since the government shutdown. On it's face it looked great- coming in about .4%…

Yay, it's Fed Week! The market was anticipating a .25 cut to the Fed Funds rate, but a reticent cut where Powell would basically say "fine, we will cut this last time but we aren't cutting again until we…

Happy Holidays and I hope you are having a great week! Here is this week's market update. Honestly, a pretty quiet week overall. The headline grabbing news was today's PCE report (from September), which…

Happy Thanksgiving! This one is coming out a bit earlier due to the holiday. Enjoy! Rates improved on new data this week. The Producer Price Index showed inflations rising .3% in September which was right…

Will they? Won't they? That seems to be on the mind of the market this week in regards to the potential for a Fed rate cut in December. We heard from numerous Fed members this week in various formats and…

Wow, when it rains it pours! After a couple weeks of wondering what the heck I was going to write about each week, this week delivered in spades. First and foremost would be the end of the record long…

I guess it was kind of like a jobs week? The record-breaking government shutdown continues and in its wake is a void of government data, but the private sector did bring some important reporting this…

The Fed SLASHED interest rates this week! The fed met this week for its penultimate meeting of the year and delivered a 25 basis point cut on their interest rate, just as the market predicted. There were…

DATA! Sweet, sweet inflation data! Yes, today brought the only piece of data that will be provided during the government shutdown, the CPI report. One analyst hyperbolically called it an "oasis slaking…

Rates stayed pretty steady with the absence of a working government this week. With the government shutdown a lot of important reports either are not coming or are delayed, so traders looked to outside…

With the Shutdown still firmly in place, the market had to look abroad for news that might impact rates. At the beginning of the week we were focused on news out of Japan, whose new Prime Minister appears…

It was jobs week! At least, it was until it wasn't. All eyes were on the BLS labor report that was supposed to drop…today. Problem is, when the government shut down on Wednesday that included the BLS, so…

Fed drops rate by .25%! Finally! This week saw the year's first cut to the Fed Funds rate, and mortgage rates…. worsened as a result? But the news has been clamoring about lowering the Fed rate would help…

This week was STACKED! It was a rare week where we had both jobs and inflation reports dropping with the potential to move markets significantly. And yet, nothing really happened rate-wise. Sure there was…

Rates are in RALLY MODE! Let's not bury the lede here, rates are dropping and dropping fast. Currently we are in the LOW TO MID 6's for a standard 20% down purchase, so if you have clients out shopping…

The week opened with drama surrounding Fed Governor Lisa Cook, with President Trump firing her from her role at the Fed on Monday. She is 2 years into a 14 year term and she has no intention of stepping…

The market was only focused on one thing this week- the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Chair Powell's final speech. I touched on this last week, but to recap: each year the Fed meets in Jackson Hole to…

It was inflation week and rates stayed strong for the most part. The CPI was released on Tuesday and came in pretty much in line with what the market was expecting. Then the PPI came out on Thursday and……

Rates gave up some of their gains this week on a quieter economic news week. By "quieter" I mean there were no big reports being dropped, but there was still plenty to follow this week. Before we get into…

This week had it all: Fed Meetings, Jobs Reports, Inflation Readings, and Tariffs. Going chronologically, the beginning of the week we had the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS report) which…

Rates are relatively flat to slightly worsened this week with little news. Currently we are sitting just be low 7% The biggest news this week was President Trump visiting the Fed remodel jobsite and…

It was inflation week and the market is still waiting to see the full impact of tariffs on the overall cost of goods. The result of this week was more or less a nothingburger. The CPI rose about .3% for…

Rates trending upward this week due to foreign influences. Early in the week the Reserve Bank of Australia surprise dd investors by not cutting rates (the market was betting there was a 95% chance they…

It was Jobs Week this week, and the pattern we have gotten so used to continues. The pattern goes a little something like this- early in the week we get a Jolts report that hints at some softening in the…

Shockingly, rates have quietly started an improving trend. Over the past 3 weeks, rates have improved every day except for two days. Now, the improvements have not huge rallies by any means, but in the…

It was Fed Week! The Fed met this week and decided… to do nothing. The market wasn't expecting a rate cut this week, and they didn't get one. Rates stayed the same but the juicier tidbit was the Fed…

It was inflation week and it had every opportunity to hurt interest rates in a bad way. But somehow, rates persevered. There was concern that this months CPI data would finally be the report to reflect…

It was Jobs Week this week! I always struggle with my verbiage during these weeks because higher unemployment usually leads to an improvement in rates. But I don't want to sound jubilant when discussing…

There was a lot going on this week between Tariff talk, Nvidia Earnings and Fed Speak, but all eyes were on today's PCE report. But let's discuss the earlier items first. The market is seeming to come to…

This week was… not great. There were no real market-moving reports being dropped this week, which allowed for some general introspection on the market. And when traders took a step back and looked into…

It was inflation week, and it is interesting to see how the market will react in these post-tariff times. This month's reports likely gathered their information from the week after "Liberation Day", so…

It was Fed week! Most attention this week was directed to the Fed meeting (which concluded on Wednesday), and Fed Chairman Powell's post-meeting press conference. No one expected the Fed to cut rates at…

It was jobs week this week! The stage was set for a huge rally, culminating in today's BLS jobs report. The Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Monday came in below expectations. The…

If this week had a theme it would be "stepping back". The White House ended last week with calls for the firing of Fed Chair Jerome Powell (over his inaction on cutting interest rates), which led to even…

A return to normal? Kind of! As more information about and exceptions to the tariffs came out, the market seemed to breath a bit more and relax. Rates are now trading in a more specified range that,…

Most importantly, I hope you are having a great week! Here is my attempt to provide an update for this week, which I am sure will be obsolete as soon as I hit send ?? Wow, where do I even begin? In a week…

Tariffs and Jobs and Recession- oh my! Liberation day was Wednesday where President Trump announced sweeping tariffs across all US trading partners. The result was… not ideal. In after hours trading…

A lot to digest this week! While most focus was on today's PCE report, leading up to it we had to watch out for a GDP report and another tariff put in place. Since some components of the PCE report…

It was Fed week this week! The Fed met earlier this week and while they didn't change rates they did make some moves that had some impacts to mortgage rates. While most of the media focused on their shift…

It was inflation week and both the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index beat expectations. As a result, rates…. worsened? Yes, rates have slipped a bit this week despite the headline…

It was jobs week this week! The ADP report kicked things off on Wednesday , coming in at almost HALF the expected job creations. The report showed 77K new jobs created during the month vs the market…

All eyes were on today's CPE report, and it came in right as expected. However this was kind of seen as a missed opportunity. The Core CPE (which is the part the Fed focuses on) came in at a 2.6% increase…

It was an abbreviated week with trading closed on Monday for President's Day, but we still saw some good movement. This was mainly due to some comments made this week by current Fed Members. On the…

Happy Snowy Valentine's Day! I hope you are staying safe and warm! Here is this week's market update It was inflation week, with the CPI and PPI dropping on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The CPI…

It was Jobs Week! Most of the reports coming out this week were mixed, but indicated a softening labor market. The JOLTs report (Job Opening and Labor Turnover) indicated fewer open positions were…

DeepSeek Drama started the week by upending the stock market. This caused a "flight to safety" on Monday, meaning investors that had their money in tech stocks like Nvidia pulled their money and parked it…

Wow, a lot to going on this week. Obviously, the biggest event was the inauguration of President Trump and all the executive orders that followed. With the markets closed that day, they had some time to…

What a difference a week makes! Last week's jobs report sent rates spiking with no boundary in sight for how high they could go. Then this weeks inflation reports came out to save the day. Both the…

OUCH. It was jobs week this week culminating in today's BLS report for December, and it came in much stronger than anticipated. This was brutal for mortgage rates. Rates are based on the 10 yr Treasury…

Happy New Year! I hope you are having a great week. It was another quiet week in the bond market with rates more or less flat with where they started on Monday, which is to say still elevated. We got…

Happy almost end of the year! Here is this week's market update. I predicted this week to be volatile, and boy was I correct. It was Fed week and while they did cut their interest rate another 25 basis…

It was Inflation week! The CPI and PPI were both released this week, and one of them came in a little hotter than expected. The PPI reported at a .4% increase (vs the .2% estimated) and the CPI reported…

Rates are encouraged today on news from the BLS jobs report. It was jobs week this week with the ADP payroll report earlier and the BLS Jobs report today. The headline from the BLS report showed a bit of…

Well it was short week but it was eventful! I hope you are easing into a great Thanksgiving weekend, and here is this week's market update: President-Elect Trump dominated the news on Monday and Tuesday.…

Rates held more or less steady to slightly improved his week. World events like Nvidias earnings and Russia's retaliation in Ukraine caused a small push to bonds but for the most part there wasn't much…

Rates are straight up not having a good time. It was another rough week for mortgage rates with economic reports coming in warmer than expected. The CPI report came in more or less as expected, putting…

Whew, we made it. In a week that felt like a month, we had a lot of volatility and a lot of big events. I will focus on the Big Two in the below: First, the election. Mortgage rates immediately shot up…

In a week full of conflicting data, mortgage rates suffered. The ADP report showed 233K jobs created during the month, while today's BLS report shows only 12K being created. The PCE report showed…

Remember last week when I predicted rates to be pretty "steady" this week? I couldn't have been more wrong. Rates took a beating on Monday and never quite recovered. Currently we are back where we were in…

Sorry for the delay on today's update! This morning was my daughters LAST jogathon of elementary school (sniff) Rates held pretty steady this week… until yesterday. A retail sales report yesterday blew…

Soft Landing or Doomsday Scenario? There has been a lot of talk about the Fed possibly delivering their coveted "Soft Landing", but there seems to be the same amount of discourse saying we are hurtling…

Oof, it was a rough week for rates. There was a lot going on, both "planned" and "unplanned", which I will detail below, but all in all we saw rates worsen to the mid to high 6's. Hopefully next week…

The market continued to digest the Fed rate cut this week, with some surprising impacts from foreign markets. As we get further and further away from last Wednesday's Fed rate cut, it become more apparent…

IT FINALLY HAPPENED! The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points (a basis point, or bps is basically .1% of rate). The market was 50/50 of if the cut would be 25 or 50 bps, and some members of congress we…

It was inflation week with the CPI and PPI dropping Wednesday and Thursday. These reports were once very scrutinized when inflation was ramping up, but are now seen as more of a precursor to the Feds…

It was jobs week and we got multiple reports starting with Wednesday's JOLTS (Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey) which showed a 3 year low in Job Openings. Then Thursday's ADP report supported those…

It was a pretty quiet week this week, with all eyes pointed at today's PCE report. The PCE report is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation and it came in pretty much right as expected at a .2% increase…

"THE TIME HAS COME FOR POLICY TO ADJUST!" – Fed Chair Powell, today. Sweet sweet music to my ears, Fed Chair Powell spoke today at their annual Jackson Hole Symposium and charted a path forward for the…

This week had everything for mortgage rates. We had an early week rally after a promising PPI report then got hammered yesterday after retail sales came out. Currently we have recovered a little bit of…

The news is reporting year-low interest rates! The news is wrong! Yes, I know last week I got a little excited about rates dropping but I also said "there will be ups and downs". After the stock market…

That's right, we are in the middle of a good old fashioned "rally" FINALLY! Mortgage rates got some juice last week from the PCE report, then the Fed met this week, and finally the BLS jobs report dropped…

Rates spent most of the week elevated, with the market on watch for today's PCE report (more on that below). There wasn't much hard market-moving data coming out so the bond market more or less bickered…

Rates are relatively unchanged from last week. We saw a minor lowering in rates at the beginning of the week but they have worsened since. It was a relatively quiet week data-wise and the market is more…

Three big ticket items over the past two weeks have brought some optimism to the mortgage market: FIRST- Fed Chair Powell testified in front of the Senate Banking Committee this week and (once again)…

All eyes were on today's PCE report. The Personal Consumption and Expenditures report is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, and the market was hoping for a cooler report to support the notion that…

Rates pretty much held to where they started at the beginning of this week, which is a win in my book. There is a wide range in moving averages that mortgage bonds are currently trading between, meaning…

It was VERY busy week with the Fed meeting and CPI and PPI reports dropping all within a 72 hour timespan. So I guess we will just tackle them in chronological order. First was the Consumer Price Index…

After worsening to their highest levels in months, rates got a reprieve today by a modest PCE report. There wasn't a lot on the books this week by way of market-moving reports, but a couple lackluster…

After a strong showing early in the week, rates worsened yesterday and today from some surprising showing in yesterday's durable goods report. "Durable goods" are a category of tangible products that last…

It was CPI week this week, and rates enjoyed a cooler than expected report. The March CPI report showed that inflation rose only .3% for the month vs the .4% estimated increase. Year over year inflation…

Rates have tentatively improved this week, buoyed on weaker than expected jobs numbers from last week and other rate-friendly reports this week. None of them were major market movers, but Consumer…

It was Fed Week and Jobs week, and for once it seems like both playing friendly with rates. Starting with the Fed meeting- they unsurprisingly kept rates the same, but in the post-meeting press conference…

News-wise, it was a pretty quiet week. All eyes were pointed towards today's PCE report. The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Price Index is yet another measurement of inflation and is the Fed's…

It was another rocky week for mortgage rates. The worsening from last week continued at the beginning of the week, and we saw a brief turnaround on Tuesday and Wednesday but it did not last long. Rates…

The CPI report dropped this week (like a lead balloon). Yes the all-important inflation report was released on Wednesday and was expected to come in at 3.4%. Instead it came in a smidge hotter at 3.5% and…

It was "Jobs week" this week, culminating in today's BLS jobs report which came in higher than expected at 303K vs the 200K estimate. (These are the seasonally adjusted numbers, without the seasonal…

It was a pretty quiet week with the biggest news drop coming today with the PCE report. The PCE is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation and today's news came in as expected with a YOY reading of 2.8%.…

The Fed meeting loomed large this week and unsurprisingly they did not change rates. No one was expecting them to this time around, but everyone was very curious as to what they would say about the…

Stubborn inflation readings hurt interest rates late this week. The market managed to shake off an initial blow of a mildly hotter CPI report on Wednesday, but yesterday's PPI report was the second half…

Lots of events and activities led to improvements in rates! Mid-week was dominated by Powell testifying before a congress and the latter half of the week was all about jobs jobs jobs. The end result has…

What a difference a week makes, both in weather and in rates! Last Friday we had sun and rates frightened by Fed comments and unsavory reports. This Friday we are looing at potential snow and rates have…

Rates are having a sunny end of the week but are being pinched between their three-week worsening trend and the 200-day moving average. If treasuries fall below the 200-day moving average today it is…

CPI, PPI, My oh my. The Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports were released this week and the results were... not great. In a nutshell they both showed stronger inflation than anticipated…

Rates struggled early in the week but eventually gained their footing for a quiet end of the week. If you recall, late last week they were rocked by Chairman Powell's post Fed-meeting notes that he…

Once again, the Fed kills the fun in the market. We had been having a pretty nice rally for the past couple of weeks with rates steadily (although marginally) improving. That all came to a screeching halt…

It was an "unsteady" week for interest rates, where they spent most of the time increasing only to change course yesterday ahead of today's PCE report (more on that below). The PCE report came in at…

This one is going to be short and sweet. I hope you are safe and warm wherever you are. We are dealing with broken pipes and faulty generators around here, but thankfully it looks like things are going to…

Rates improved on the week thanks to some favorable inflation reports. The CPI that was released yesterday wasn't quite bond friendly, showing an uptick in inflation in December. Thankfully traders sifted…

Nice work on the meeting Pete! Here is what I have for this week Happy First Week of 2024! Here is this week's market update Rates worsened slightly this week due to a couple jobs reports that came out.…

It was a quiet week between Christmas and New Years. No real "market-moving" data was released so rates were stable to slightly improved all week. Next week brings more employment figures that will…

Happy Holidays and I hope you have had a great week! Rates are basically even in a pretty quiet trading week. There wasn't a ton of data being dropped so there wasn't an opportunity for big shifts in…

Happy Holidays and I hope you had a great week! Here is this week's market update: This week has been HISTORIC for rates! Wednesday and Thursday showed one of the biggest drops in mortgage rates in all of…

This week was jobs week! It seems odd to me that the market will react to reports that are so inaccurate. What I mean is whenever jobs reports are released (either by ADP or the Bureau of Labor…