Portland Mortgage Market Update — August 30, 2024

It was a pretty quiet week this week, with all eyes pointed at today's PCE report. The PCE report is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation and it came in pretty much right as expected at a .2% increase month over month (it actually came in at a .16% increase but they round up). If we take that .16% increase and multiply that by 12 months we get an annualized inflation increase of 1.92% which is right in line with the Fed's 2% inflation mandate. Look at us, we did it!

But rates are not really moving the way we would like them despite our big inflation win. In fact, they are flat with yesterday to slightly worsened. Rates have actually been pretty stagnant all week and it looks like it would have taken a big miss on the PCE report to really make much impact one way or another. No, the market seems to have resigned itself that inflation is last week's news and we are all about Jobs now.

Good thing too, since next week brings some hotly anticipated Jobs reports towards the end of the week. These will definitely be market moving and if they come in worse than expected it sets up the Fed to go for a 50 point cut at their next meeting instead of the assume 25point cut. Keep an eye out for the JOLTS (Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey) report on Wednesday and the ADP and Jobless Claims reports on Thursday.