Portland Mortgage Market Update — December 5, 2025

Happy Holidays and I hope you are having a great week! Here is this week's market update.

Honestly, a pretty quiet week overall. The headline grabbing news was today's PCE report (from September), which came in right at the estimated 0.3% rise that month. Earlier in the week ADP released a report showing 32,000 job losses in November. Between these two data drops the Fed has a clear path to cutting rates in their meeting next week, with the market now putting an 87% chance for cut.

Speaking of the Fed, President Trump announced he has made his pick for the next Fed Chair. While he didn't go so far as to announce it, I can't imagine he will sit on his decision for long and we should hear in the coming weeks who he has decided to appoint. Predictive market Kalshi says Kevin Hassett has a 48% chance to be named, which should bode well for interest rates since he just said "it's a good time for the Fed to cautiously reduce rates again" in an interview with Fox News. Hasset currently acts as Director of the National Economic Council, so he should know a thing or two about economic policy.

FHFA facing some heat. This may end up being a nothing-burger, but FHFA chief Bill Pulte is under investigation by the Government Accountability Office in response to claims that he is using his powers to target a Federal Reserve Governor (Lisa Cook) and other critics of President Trump. The FHFA oversees and regulates Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and all Federal Home Loans Banks, and while I can't really stand Pulte in general, he has been a long time advocate of changing loan level pricing adjustments and other barriers to make financing cheaper and more accessible to the masses. Also, this investigation came as a result of a letter written by eight Senate Democrats, so it feels like more of a retaliation but doesn't have any real teeth to it.