Portland Mortgage Market Update — March 13, 2026

EVERYTHING is being dominated by oil prices right now. We had a couple inflation reports, GDP revised downwards and more, but all these reports were based on a world that wasn't at war with one of the largest oil producers in the world. So the market pretty much shrugged all that off because the paradigm has shifted, and now we are forward-looking at potential for higher oil prices which will make everything more expensive and spur inflation higher. This outlook now has the market running for cover with stocks and bonds tanking.

But aren't we releasing reserves? Shouldn't that help? In theory, yes, but the amount being released and timing of it accounts for less than half of what would be coming through the Strait of Hormuz. Also, it seems like every time we make a step forward with a workaround, someone does or says something that offsets it. A tweet from the White House saying we escorted an oil tanker through the Strait gave just enough optimism to start a rally, only to find out a "staffer" misfired the tweet and it never really happened and markets tank. President Trump makes an off the cuff remark about how this war may end "soon", then later that night goes on a social media rampage promises "Death, fire and fury will reign upon them." The G7 announces a release of a record amount of oil reserves, and that night the newly appointed supreme leader issued a press release highlighting the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. So all in all, it is one step forward, two steps back.

Rates ended the week significantly worse than where they started, and the last time we saw pricing in this range was around August of last year. It seems the only way we will get rates back in check is an end or a massive military breakthrough. Trump loves the stock market so prides himself on how well it performs, so it will be interesting to watch how he navigates things in an effort to bring the market back in line.