Portland Mortgage Market Update — June 5, 2026

Remember last week when I said "With a ceasefire on the horizon and some Jobs reports that are likely going to show softening numbers, we could see this little rate rally continue."? Yeah, neither of those happened. Apparently the term "cease fire" doesn't mean a whole lot and Iran is currently saying peace talks have stalled over $24 BILLION in frozen assets leaving them no other choice but to widen the scope of the war.

Jobs also reported stronger than expected this week, culminating with today's BLS report which (while traditionally pretty unreliable) showed an economy that added 172,000 new jobs in May (double the 85K expected) and revised March and April's reports upwards by a combined 93,000. With the jobs market now appearing to be a bit more resilient, the Fed is able to focus on inflation again, and there is now a 71% chance we see at least 1 rate hike before the end of the year.

And that rate pressure is reflecting in new applications. The Mortgage Banker Association reported that applications fell 8.5% for the week ending May 22 vs the prior week. That being said, when applications drop, competition drops too meaning buyers that are staying engaged are more liable to get a better deal in their negotiations. It is important now to push the narrative that buyers should "date the rate but marry the house" because as the past few years have shown us there will always be another opportunity to refi when rates dip, however fleeting that may be.