Portland Mortgage Market Update — May 29, 2026

Rates had a good week due to optimism coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. The week "Will they? Won't they?" of the resolution could have caused a lot of turmoil, but the markets seem to be content with the tentative agreement to re-open the Strait in order to begin talks about Iran's nuclear program. The markets were closed on Monday but from opening on Tuesday to now rates have improved about .25%.

This is despite a PCE report that could have caused problems. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation dropped this week and it showed a headline reading of inflation rising 0.4% in April, which if you carry that out would mean a 4.8% annual clip. But this reading was BELOW expectations, and when you strip out food and energy pricing it only rose 0.2%, or a 2.4% annual increase which is pretty much right in line with the Fed's target number. A second reading of the Q1 GDP report was also released and it fell from 2% to 1.6%, which shows an economy that was already starting to slow down and that's before we went to war and oil prices spiked. Also, roughly half of the GDP is being propped up by AI buildout, which means other sectors are doing much worse.

Next week is jobs week! With a ceasefire on the horizon and some Jobs reports that are likely going to show softening numbers, we could see this little rate rally continue. If you have clients that are waiting for rates to calm down, now is the time to get back out there.