Portland Mortgage Market Update — August 7, 2026

The skies are finally blue again and its looking to be a great, smoke-free weekend! Here is this week's market update.

Speaking of the smoke clearing, it was jobs week this week and today's BLS report confirmed what many of us are feeling—that previous reports may have been misleading and the labor market is not as strong it was cracked up to be. The report showed the economy LOSING 23,000 jobs, rather than gaining 80K as was anticipated. Previous reports were revised downward, with Mays settling at 63,000 new jobs from the 172K that was initially reported. This is significant because at the last Fed meeting there were 3 members that were advocating for hiking their rate, citing a strong labor market that could handle a rate hike in efforts to combat inflation. This report clearly shows that we are seeing the opposite.

Progress in the Strait of Hormuz? Iran and Oman have began talks this week about re-opening the strait which helped ease oil prices, however when it was revealed that the strait would be open for basically anyone not named the US or Isreal it dampened the excitement a bit. Regardless, energy prices have softened a bit over the past couple of weeks and hopefully that will be reflected in the CPI report dropping next week. If CPI comes in better than expected, that could change the rate outlook for the rest of the summer.

That gives reason for optimism despite the record high interest rates this week. Yes, Freddie Mac is reporting rates at 6.69% which is a one year high, but today's jobs report, cooling energy prices and easing wage growth create a powerful three-part argument that the worst is behind us. The market was betting a 57% for a September rate hike after the last Fed meeting, but those odds are falling fast. Buyers that are active right now are in a position to get in ahead of the market before their competition comes rearing back.