Portland Mortgage Market Update — May 2, 2025

It was jobs week this week! The stage was set for a huge rally, culminating in today's BLS jobs report. The Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Monday came in below expectations. The same day, the Consumer Conference report was released and fell from 92.9 to an 86, showing that people are feeling the pinch of a contracting economy.

What happened with today's BLS report? In short, they ruined the party that rates were hoping for. If today's report came in with a lower (more accurate) reading, rates were poised to fall like a rock. But it showed that 177M new jobs were created instead of the 138M that the market was anticipating. Stocks are improving and rates are suffering as a result.

So the JOLTS report and the BLS report are contradictory? It would seem so. If there were more jobs being created, it would seem there would be more Job openings. But if there is one thing the BLS is consistent on it is being incorrect on their initial reports. To wit, in today's report they issued a revision to March's report downward by 43,000. Initially they reported 228K new jobs in March, but are now saying it was only 185K, and further downward revisions are expected. Likewise, February's report has been revised downward twice, and they are now saying their initial reading was off by 49,000. So this number will inevitably be revised downward, probably landing closer to the 138K jobs that were expected (which would have kicked off a rally), but the market doesn't really react to these adjustments and homebuyers are going to be left holding the bag with higher rates in the near term.