Portland Mortgage Market Update — July 17, 2026

It was inflation week and both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Inde came in tamer than expected. This would usually be good news and huge for mortgage rates, but since these readings came from last month and were likely impacted by the ceasefire, the market more or less took the readings as a non-issue. Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to dominate the financial markets, and traditional measures are taking a back seat.

But that didn't stop Fed members from speaking out this week. We heard from a couple voting members, as well as the Fed Chair himself this week and what they had to say illustrated the "Family divided" label the Fed has earned.

• Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan spoke yesterday and advocated for marginally higher rates to fight inflation, with the understanding being we can't control what is going on with tariffs or in Iran so we just need to take care of what we can at home and this is a surefire way to get it done, even if elevated rates for a longer period would likely cause a recession. • NY Fed President John Williams spoke earlier in the week saying that he thinks we are right where we need to be. Any new tariffs would be replacing the old ones (which are currently expiring) and energy seems to have already peaked and is factored in. This week's lower CPI and PPI numbers seem to support that our current levels are working • Fed Chair Warsh testified before the House and Senate and the biggest takeaways are that he acknowledged the lower unemployment numbers are not due to a thriving workforce, but rather a slow down in labor supply (fewer available workers= lower unemployment). He was tight-lipped in regard to forward guidance, saying he wanted to wait to get insights from his task forces which buys him time to make any moves.

Rates are now at their highest level of 2026, but are still about .2% lower than where we were last year. As I mentioned before, the markets are being driven by headlines rather than traditional indicators so we will keep refreshing the CNN tab to see what is going on in Iran to get a better idea of where rates are headed. If we do get a lasting ceasefire/peace, rates will simmer down but it will take a while because as we have seen in the past, we can't be sure it will last and the markets are cautious if they are anything.