Portland Mortgage Market Update — July 10, 2026

Cease the ceasefire! The ceasefire in Iran fell apart this week and the market at large suffered as a result. Yields increased as oil climbed back over $70/barrel. Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner put it plainly: "Mortgage rates looked like they were poised for a retreat in recent weeks, but the deterioration of the situation in Iran has put them on an upward trajectory yet again." The Iran conflict has now functioned as the single most powerful driver of mortgage rate volatility all year — responsible for the spring surge from 6.09% to above 6.50%, the brief June relief, and now this week's reversal.

Changes to the CPI are coming! The Bureau of Economic Analysis which is responsible for gathering the data for the CPI report announced they are changing their methodology on a few line items in the report, most notably portfolio management. If you have an investment portfolio, and the funds manager charges 1-2% to service, if they do their job well the portfolio will grow and so will their earnings. The growth in earnings had previously gone against the CPI, and in recent years with an exploding AI market this number has been significant. By accurately accounting for portfolio management it is estimated the CPI will drop by as much as .3%

Fed minutes released this week show a divided Fed. There was concern that the new Fed Chair Warsh was going to shorten the minutes in his effort to reduce Fed forward guidance, but these were the full real deal that we are used to. The minutes showed 8 members not expecting a cut this year, one that wants to cut and 9 that are predicting at least one rate hike, so clearly there are some differing opinions. Warsh also announced his task forces this week, which consist of an all-star cast of ex-fed members, Chairs from other countries and even an old CEO of Walmart. He has indicated these task forces won't be fully functioning until the end of the year which should buy him some time before having to do anything that changes interest rates.