Portland Mortgage Market Update — December 19, 2025

It was inflation week! The Consumer Price Index for November dropped yesterday, and this is the first CPI report issued since the government shutdown. On it's face it looked great- coming in about .4% below estimates. However there were some concerns about the data, mainly that due to the shutdown some of the line items were just copied over from the last report (showing no movement up or down) and also some of the data collected for retail sales happened in late November, i.e. Black Friday. So the market reacted cautiously, but ultimately lead to improved mortgage rates.

One of those that voiced concerns about the data was Ny Fed President John Williams. In an interview with CNBC today, he pointed out the potential shortcomings of the CPI report, but also indicated that he thinks inflation is going down overall. He said he believes the forward looking inflation numbers is likely around 2.5%, which is right in line with the Fed's target rate so we are now scrutinizing jobs numbers going forward to try and read the tea leaves for how the Fed will react. Our next big one should be the QCEW report, which is the report that audits the previous quarter's BLS reports and squares up the numbers. Recent QCEW reports have been very bond friendly because of how inaccurate the initial BLS reports are. The QCEW report was due today, but is now TBD due to the shutdown.

Next week is pretty light with only 2.5 trading days before Friday (and on one of those days my twins turn 16!), so if you don't see one of these in your inbox next Friday I want to thank you for an eventful year and wish you and your family the Happiest of Holidays! (Of course, I am around for the duration so please feel free to call me ANYTIME!)