Portland Mortgage Market Update — April 10, 2026

CEASE FIRE! CEASE FIRE!!! Or don't, I guess. The big news this week was Tuesday's 5PM PST deadline for Iran to come to the bargaining table or face Trump's promised annihilation. Ultimately, initial terms were met at the deadline which initiated a cease fire to the military operation in Iran, and with the Strait of Hormuz set to re-open the markets rallied and rates improved. However, it wasn't long (less than 24 hours) before there was continued fighting between Israel and Lebanon and Iran shut down the se strait once again, with both the uS and Iran accusing the other of violating the terms of the peace. So while there is a "technical" ceasefire in place, it appears to be tenuous at present. The market is keeping an eye on these developments but appears to be quietly optimistic that one way or another the powers that be will find a way to some sort of resolution.

Rates are slightly improved this week as a result of the news, but as the Strait tightened up again, oil pricing went back up and so did interest rates. The reasoning is that if oil gets expensive, pretty much every consumable good will get more expensive which pushes inflation higher. If inflation remains high, the Fed may have to begrudgingly increase rates to combat it. However, the flip side to all this is if the cost of goods increases there is a risk that employers will also start laying off employees, trying to trim fat where they can. This is similar to what happened in the 70's with the oil crisis then, and while that is potentially a long ways away from where we are currently, it is a concern.

Other tidbits worth noting:

• Today's inflation report came in hotter than we would like but within expectation. The headline number seems high but it is almost entirely due to the increase oil prices as a result of the war. Core inflation which strips out food an energy came in at a modest increase of .2% which comes out to a 2.4% YOY increase in inflation which is pretty close to the Fed's goal of 2% • Peace talks are scheduled to happen this weekend in Islamabad, Pakistan between the US and Iran to iron out terms, and importantly Israel has authorized negotiations with Lebanon to start "as soon as possible." • Fed Chair Powell and Secretary Bessent held an emergency meeting with heads of major US Banks to discuss security surrounding Anthropic's "Mythos" AI agent as it has shown the ability to escape testing environments AND hack advanced encryption. Not scary at all!