Portland Mortgage Market Update — April 17, 2026

News in Hormuz- Rates are rallying this morning as Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial vessels as Isreal and Lebanon start their 10 day ceasfire. Oil prices have dropped by about 10% as a result to around $80/barrel (for reference, they peaked at $117/barrel and were around $67/barrel pre-war). Mortgage Backed Securities are now pricing right in line with where they were early in March, so while this is animprovement we still have a way to go. Markets will be looking for a long-term peace deal in the coming weeks, as Israel and Lebanon have only agreed to a 10 day ceasefire (and the US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire in one week). Trump indicated continued talks could take place this weekend and is confident a deal will come soon.

Drama at the Fed- Earlier this week President Trump threatened to fire Fed Chair Powell next month if he doesn't step down from his role as the leader of the Fed. Legally, the President does not have the ability to fire a sitting Fed member unless it is "for cause", and Trump is pointing to an overbudget renovation to the Fed's headquarters as reason for the firing. If Powell actually gets fired, it will likely set up a legal battle and the Supreme Court is already deliberating a similar case with Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. This is important because the US Dollar is the de facto global currency, and part of the reason why it is so important on the global stage is solely because of the Fed's political independence and its responsibilities to make decisions solely based on monetary policy and are not beholden to any political entity. Allowing Trump to fire Powell injects political motivations to the Fed's duties and erodes the US Dollar's global standing. When a country owes around $30 Trillion in foreign debt and the value of its method of repayment comes into question, things could get dicey.

Drama at the Fed Part 2- Kevin Warsh, Trump's appointed replacement for Jerome Powell (who, as a reminder, was appointed by Trump during his last presidency) finally submitted his financial disclosures this week and they were… interesting to say the least. This is a requirement of any incoming Fed member, and they indicated that he holds assets roughly $135 Million to $226 Million. On top of that, his wife (granddaughter to cosmetics founder Estee Lauder) is estimated to hold a 1.9 BILLION DOLLAR FORTUNE. Pocket peeking aside, the drama comes from two line items saying the assets are worth over $50M with no actual dollar estimation, meaning they could be far higher than $50M. Warsh claims those accounts are tied to the "Juggernaut Fund" of a previous employer and he is bound by confidentiality agreements not to disclose their value. I mention all this mainly to highlight how removed from reality some of these people are, but there is a real issue here in that previous Fed Members have been forced to leave the Fed for not showing their full hand so why should Warsh be treated any differently?