Portland Mortgage Market Update — July 11, 2025

Rates trending upward this week due to foreign influences. Early in the week the Reserve Bank of Australia surprise dd investors by not cutting rates (the market was betting there was a 95% chance they would at the time) and this morning France posted some higher than expected inflation numbers. In our global economy, these surprises caught investors off guard and as a result stocks and bond are hurting. Couple these events with some fresh new tariffs and it sets the stage for an oppressive rate environment.

Things are heating up for JPow! The outcry for replacing current Fed Chair Jerome Powell seems to be getting louder and louder. The minutes from the last Fed Meeting were released this week and it paints a picture of 3 distinct groups within the Fed- those that thing we need to cut rates right away, those that think we need to wait for see if tariffs impact inflation, and those that don't think they are strict enough in their policy. Beyond policy, the Fed is coming under fire about renovations taking place at the Federal Reserve building in Washington DC. Just like any renovation, this is going over budget with some estimating an overrun of 2.5 BILLION dollars. Pundits are saying this is indicative of Powells inability to manage things, but for the most part I think this is political posturing to put pressure on the Fed chair to step down.

Changes to credit reporting could bring more buyers to market! Bill Pulte, the head of the FHFA, announced that effective immediately Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will start accepting VantageScore 4.0 in addition to FICO credit scores. Both issue credit scores on a 300-850 range, but VantageScore takes other liabilities (rent, utilities, etc) into account when tabulating their score. Also, VantageScore can produce a score within just 1-2 months of credit history whereas FICO scores need at least 6 months. This new way of calculating credit scores could help potential borrowers who had a past derogatory credit event that have been taking the right steps since to improve their situation. It is estimated that this change will open the door for around 5 million new potential buyers!