Portland Mortgage Market Update — October 11, 2024

Soft Landing or Doomsday Scenario? There has been a lot of talk about the Fed possibly delivering their coveted "Soft Landing", but there seems to be the same amount of discourse saying we are hurtling towards a recession. The proponents of the soft landing point at the inflation numbers steadily marching towards the 2% goal while maintaining a strong workforce. The harbingers of doom say the reported jobs figures are propped up (both by inaccurate reporting and part time labor) and, to a lesser extent, that inflation may not be as good as it looks since truflation (inflation over the past 30 days vs over the past year) is showing under the 2% target and headed towards disinflation. I can see points of both arguments, but primarily look to history which shows that we have hit multiple milestones (inverted yield curves, Fed interest rate slashes, Job losses) in the past couple of months that are all precursors to a recession.

It was a mixed inflation week. The CPI report came out on Thursday that showed a 1.8% increase in inflation vs the .1% as expected. Then today's PPI cam out at .048% increase, below the .1% expected increase. The market shrugged this off and appeared to still be reeling from the hotter than expected jobs numbers from last week, while still betting on two more rate cuts this year.

QUICK MONEY ALERT! I have a client that is buying a new home and needs access to equity in his current home, which is owned free and clear. I was able to get a first position HELOC for him submitted on Monday and approved yesterday. He is signing his documents over the weekend and will have access to his down payment well in advance of his 11/6 close date on the new property. If you have any buyers in a similar situation, have them call me so I can help you put a deal together!