Portland Mortgage Market Update — November 27, 2024

Well it was short week but it was eventful! I hope you are easing into a great Thanksgiving weekend, and here is this week's market update:

President-Elect Trump dominated the news on Monday and Tuesday. He sparked a market rally on Monday by announcing his pick of Scott Bessent as his Treasury Secretary. Then he promptly killed the rally on Tuesday by going against that pick and doubling down on his tough talk about tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China. Some quick background on Bessent- he is a hedge fund manager by trade that believes Trump's tariff plans are a negotiation tool rather and something set in stone. The market fears the tariffs because they would increase the cost of goods which would cause inflation to rise again. When Trump doubled down on the tarrif talk on Tuesday, the market reversed a bit but many are betting he is just adding fuel to a fire between Mexico and China, spurring dispute among them so the US can come out on top when they have trade talks next year.

Today brough the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the PCE report! The report came in as expected at 2.3% and the markets are breathing a sigh of relief. While this may seem counterintuitive (since last month's reading was at 2.1%) the number that this month is replacing from last month was a 0. So month over month that means inflation only rose .2%, which annualizes out to a 2.4% year over year inflation reading, which is right in line with the Fed's goal of a 2% reading.

Overall, rates are improved on the week and are currently trading between two technical levels (the 50 day and the 200 day moving averages) with plenty of room to improve. The markets are closed tomorrow and with limited trading hours on Friday, so here's to hoping this good fortune in rates holds through the long weekend.

Most importantly, I wish you a VERY Happy Thanksgiving and hope you get the opportunity to reflect this weekend on any good fortune you have experienced this year. I would like to thank you for reading this far and for your continued support in friendship and business.

Happy Holidays! I am around all weekend if anything pops up!