Portland Mortgage Market Update — August 28, 2026

Fed Chair Warsh spoke at the economic summit in Jackson Hole today and it was more or less a nothingburger, but that was by design. He doubled down on his commitment to eliminating forward guidance by the Fed, said he was "impressed" with the economy's overall resilience but also expressed clear concern about "underlying trends" in inflation that have not improved. This hinting at a stronger labor market and higher inflation spooked the market and rates worsened with the 10 yr climbing back above its 25 day moving average (a reversal from where it spent most of the week). But let's look a little deeper at employment and inflation with data that came out this week.

The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) was released today which basically audits the past year's worth of BLS jobs reports to verify accuracy. From the first Quarter of 2025 through Q1 2026, the BLS reported that 273K jobs were created. This QCEW audit revised those numbers lower by 79K, basically saying the BLS over stated jobs by about 30%. As for those "underlying trends" in inflation? The PCE report that was released this week showed core inflation at .246% in July, which annualized out is a bit higher than we would like to see at 2.952%. However, July was a huge month for the stock market as portfolio mangers sold out of tech stocks and into energy, which rose almost 13%. The biggest factor that pushed the PCE higher? Portfolio management. While some managers may charge per trade, the vast majority charge a percentage of the portfolio, which is not an everyday fixed cost to the borrower and shouldn't be included in an inflation reading since it is a result of the market. If we strip out that Portfolio management piece, inflation only rose about .12% in July which would come out to about 1.5% annual inflation, well below the Fed's preferred number.

We got a lot of weird stuff to offer! While most homebuyers need a conventional or government loan, sometimes clients need something a little outside the box. As a refresher, here is a brief breakdown of some of those niche product we can offer:

• Bank Statements for income • Foreign Nationals/ITIN Mortgages • 1099/P+L/ CPA letter as income • Land Loans • Construction/Permanent loans • Non Warrantable Condos • Recent Credit Events (Bankruptcy/Foreclosure/Shortsale)