Portland Mortgage Market Update — May 1, 2026

It was Fed Week and while they didn't change the rates, there was plenty of drama. In his post meeting remarks, Fed Chair Powell announced that it would be his last meeting… as the Chairman. Powell confirmed that he will step aside for Kevin Warsh to take over as Chairman of the Fed, but Powell also confirmed that he will stay on the board citing "unprecedented" criticism coming from the White House and that he "will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality." For reference, a departing Fed Chair has only stayed onboard with the Fed twice since its inception. Once in 1948 when President Truman asked Marriner Eccles to remain on board and before that was when the first Fed Chair hung around back in 1916. There are many people who don't like Powell who are up in arms about this, but I see it as more of a means to protect himself—he is in effect saying "if you really want to get rid of my Mr. President, you have to drop your charges for good."

On top of that, there was internal drama going on behind closed doors at the Fed. Of the 12 voting members, 4 dissented (kind of). One of the dissenters who was placed in the Fed by President Trump a couple meetings ago and basically acts as his mouthpiece wants rates lower. The other three dissenters argued that while they agree to keep rates the same, they should not be indicating in their post meeting release that they have an easing bias going forward. Their arguments are that inflations is still running high and unemployment appears to be more or less in check, so there is no reason to telegraph that future rate cuts might be coming down the pike. That being said, this does effectively set the table for incoming Fed Chair Warsh to take over unencumbered with any preconceived notions on what the Fed may or may not do. He has a blank slate to guide and set policy as he sees fit now.

Iran War continues to dominate the markets in the meantime. As gas prices hit the highest they have been since 2022, Iran has reportedly sent over a peace proposal that hinges on the US opening their blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The White House has been adamant that any peace talks must include Iran dismantling their nuclear program to insure they will never be able to produce a nuclear weapon, but this proposal essentially puts a pin in that for later discussions. The market rebounded slightly this morning on this news, but is wary of any real progress being made having gone through this whole rigmarole before.