Portland Mortgage Market Update — February 13, 2026

Happy Valentine's Day Weekend! Is that a thing? Anyway, I hope you have had a great week and here is this week's market update:

We have a Rally! Rates improved pretty steadily this week despite the BLS' best efforts. This week started with ADP releasing their weekly employment report which supported their previous (low) monthly report, and the Employment Cost Index showed another drop of .1%. The ECI is released quarterly and measures inflation by analyzing wages and salaries of employees. The stage was set once again for the BLS jobs report to drop and if it supported lower employment, mortgage rates would likely plummet. It did NOT do that. Instead the BLS defied logic and stated that 130K jobs were created, thanks largely to "seasonal adjustments" (or rather, guessing based on seasonal trends). The market was initially scared off by this number, then dove deeper in the report and realized BLS by its own admission stated they had collection issues in January due to the weather which could have impacted the reliability of the numbers.

Inflation comes in to save the day! Today's CPI report showed that year over year inflation has dropped from 2.7% to 2.4% and monthly headline inflation came in at .17%. If you take that .17% figure and annualize it over 12 months, it comes out to 2.04% inflation and the current Fed has said their ideal inflation rate is 2%, so we can hopefully state with confidence that the Fed has conquered their inflation problem. Now with the Fed's dual mandate of keeping inflation in check and the labor market strong, we look to the job market. Mortgage rates have improved in pricing by about .3% over the course of the week, with room to improve.

Next week is a shorter trading week, with the markets closed on Monday for President's Day, but there is still some action lined up with the ADP report Tuesday, the Fed Minutes being released Monday and the PCE report dropping Friday along with Q4 GDP. Bond yields are hovering right at a floor of resistance at 4.05% and if we get weaker data next week there is a real opportunity for them to punch through that with rates to further extend their rally. Now is a great time for homebuyers to get into contract on a new home!!