Portland Mortgage Market Update — November 15, 2024

Rates are straight up not having a good time. It was another rough week for mortgage rates with economic reports coming in warmer than expected. The CPI report came in more or less as expected, putting the year over year at 2.6% from 2.4%. But it was the "smaller" reports that had a bigger impact on rates- today's Retail sales coming in hotter with a lot of upward revisions to last month's report and yesterday's Initial Jobless Claims report fell 4,000. Currently rates are in the low to mid 7's, roughly the same as where they were in the beginning of July.

Recent Fed-speak is not helping things either. Jerome Powell spoke yesterday and basically tried to walk back the tough talk about another rate cut in December. With these reports showing a stronger than anticipated economy, he tried to hedge a little bit in case they decide not to cut rates at their December 18 meeting. The Boston Fed President mentioned a rate cut is on the table but is not a "lock", and the Chicago Fed President agreed that there will be lower rates but wouldn't guarantee that will happen at the next meeting. Currently the market is betting a 62% chance for another rate cut in December.

So what can we do about it? Educate, educate, educate. I am trying to motivate my buyers to move quickly because who knows when rates will turn around. Lock in rates early, and we can always float the rate down if the market improves. Hopefully things will turn around sooner, but from what I am hearing it will likely be another rough winter until February or March.

Sorry for the Debby Downer update, but I am around all weekend to help out with anything that pops up!